On Monday, you decided to put slow playing into practice. By adopting a sluggish and weak façade, you managed to deceive your opponents effectively. They kept betting, hoping to beat you, while you held a monster hand formed by the flop.
Their bets only served to grow the pot, allowing you to swoop in out of the blue and win with your monster hand. Each victory brought a grin of satisfaction.
However, recently, this strategy has stopped working. In fact, none of your usual techniques seem effective anymore.
It’s natural to think you’re experiencing bad luck, but before you dwell on that, remember this: winning streaks don’t last forever. In poker, as in life, there must be both winners and losers, and these roles often switch to maintain the balance of the universe.
This isn’t a philosophy lesson.
Coming back to poker, let’s examine the elements you might be overlooking that have led you to believe you have bad luck. This post will provide the confidence boost you need to rejoin the winning group.
Keep reading.
Variance, variance, variance. Let’s break it down. Let’s say you’re playing a game where you flip a coin. If it’s heads, you win $1. If it’s tails, you lose $1.
Variance is the difference between your expected results and what actually happens. In our coin game, you expect to break even over time. But in the short term, you might win or lose a few times in a row. This fluctuation is variance.
For example:
This variance which has an element of randomness, is likely the main cause of your worries about bad luck. Over the long run, skill tends to outweigh luck in poker, but variance is always present.
You can’t control the cards you’re dealt, and getting good or bad hands in a session is part of variance. You can’t eliminate variance because if you could, gambling wouldn’t be gambling anymore.
Building on the previous section about variance, many players make the mistake of evaluating their success or failure based on short-term outcomes. They might experience a few winning sessions and feel invincible, or they might hit a losing streak and question their skills. This short-term mindset can be misleading.
For example, you might win several hands in a row and think you’re an expert, only to face a string of bad beats that make you doubt your abilities.
Alternatively, a few losses can make you feel unlucky, even if you played each hand correctly.
You or others can’t be blamed for this short-term mindset. Gambling is built on quick returns, so it’s no surprise that this mindset prevails.
However, to survive in gambling, you’re better off focusing on long-term results. Over a significant number of hands, your true skill level will emerge despite short-term fluctuations.
There is no need to rush; be patient and play consistently to achieve reliable results.
When it comes to Lady Luck and her fickle ways, emotions are the wild card that can make or break a player’s game, especially for the greenhorns at the table.
One day, you’re on a downswing that feels as if it’s never going to end. Frustration sets in, and suddenly, you’re convinced the deck’s got it out for you. Reality check, punter — it’s not always bad luck; sometimes it’s just the cruel mistress of variance or, let’s face it, your own shoddy play.
We’ve all seen it — the classic tilt, where a player’s blood boils and chips fly as though they’re on fire. Or the desperate chase, trying to win back losses faster than a card shark can shuffle. It's a recipe for disaster.
The real pros? They’ve got their head game locked down tight. They can smell when emotions are clouding their judgment like cheap cologne. These gurus know when to step away, take a breather, and keep their strategy as cool as a cucumber.
Here’s a pro tip: set those win-and-loss limits as if they’re the law. Solid bankroll management is the difference between going home in a limo or on the bus. Ignore this, and you might as well hand over your chips now.
And here’s a gem most people overlook — keep a poker journal. Yeah, you heard me right. Jot down those plays and outcomes. You can use a dedicated notebook or a digital document as your poker journal. In it:
There is more out there, but there is little to no way these mentioned ones won’t help you stay objective and make rational decisions, mitigating the impact of selective memory, confirmation bias, and other factors that distort your perception of luck.
We’ve all seen them — those cocky cowboys who strut up to the table thinking they’re Texas Hold ’Em’s best of the best. They’re so puffed up with their own “skills” that they might as well be wearing a neon sign that says “Fish Here!”
This might remind you of that buddy of yours who swears he’s got a built-in GPS. You know the type — won’t touch Google Maps with a ten-foot pole and would rather eat his own shoe than ask for directions. Next thing you know, he’s calling you from three states over, pride in tatters, begging for a rescue.
Here’s a nugget of wisdom for you: respecting your opponents’ chops at the felt is similar to consulting that map before you hit the road. It’ll save you a planet of hurt and keep your chip stack from taking an unscheduled vacation.
Every player at that table’s got an ace up their sleeve and a few tell in their pocket. Thinking you’ve got them all figured out is a one-way ticket to Bustville.
Even if you fancy yourself the next Phil Ivey, this game’s always got another lesson to teach — and it ain’t always pretty.
So, what’s a savvy player to do? Keep that noggin in the books. Explore game theory. Dissect your sessions — the good, the bad, and the downright ugly. Learn from every hand as if your bankroll depends on it — because guess what? It does.
And for goodness sake, keep your eyes peeled. Unleash your hawk eyes to watch those opponents. If they zig, you zag. If they’re changing gears, you better be ready to shift with them.
If you’re tired of being the punching bag of Lady Luck, it's time to wise up and play the long game. Any shark worth their salt will tell you that the honey lies in taming that wild beast called variance and getting your consistency on point.
First things first, you got to play more hands. Yes, you heard me. The more you play, the less those crazy swings matter. It’s simple math. More hands equal more chances for your skills to shine through the muck of random chance, as previously mentioned in reason 2, “Misinterpreting Short-Term Results.”
Now, pay attention because this is gold: study your opponents as if they’re rare specimens. Learn their tells, their quirks, their go-to moves. When you can read them that way, suddenly “luck” starts resembling skill. Funny how that works, right?
And for the sweet mother of poker, show some discipline. Stick to your strategies, keep your emotions in check, and be ready to pivot when the table turns. It’s a poker game, not a roller coaster ride.
And don’t you forget it — streaks are as natural as breathing in this game. You can be playing textbook poker and still watch your stack shrink. It happens to the best of us. So when you feel that “bad luck” cloud rolling in, do yourself a favor: take a breather, regroup, and come back swinging.
