Betting on baseball can be tricky, but with a bit of patience and careful selection of opportunities, it can pay off. Some bettors mistakenly believe they have a winning strategy because of occasional profitable days. But in reality, they end with frequent losses.

One of the biggest professional leagues you can bet on is Major League Baseball (MLB), which consists of 30 teams. Just imagine the competition!

Betting on baseball isn't so easy, but it has grown in popularity over the years. According to stats, “After NFL (81%) and NBA (54%), MLB(44%) is the most favorite sport for Americans to bet on.”

However, betting on baseball is far riskier than betting on other sports as it requires an understanding of statistics and other variables that may highly affect your game. For instance, teams that play Sunday Night Baseball and then have an away game the next day don’t usually perform well.

Since the NBA and NFL seasons begin in September and October, bettors are left with one good option: MLB. But before you put on your baseball cap and dive into sports betting, check out what factors may affect your winning stats. Additionally, you can also join fantasy baseball.

Why Is Betting on Baseball Is So Hard?

1. Statistical Complexity

Even if you’re sports savvy and have all the stats in hand, you can never be 100% confident of the outcome. Advanced statistical models and quantitative analysis have improved prediction accuracy in baseball betting.

They use tons of data to find patterns, but even with all that technology, nailing down the perfect prediction is still tough because baseball games have a mind of their own.

Effective predictions in baseball require consideration of various factors such as historical data, team dynamics, and player metrics (e.g., OPS, ERA). All these factors influence how a game plays out and how you might bet on it.

2. Underdog Wins

If you plan to stick to your favorite team, be careful. You may bet on a star team but it turns out the underdogs steal the show. In MLB, moneyline bets are straightforward: you pick which team you think will win the game.

Let’s say the New York Yankees are playing the Red Sox and the moneyline odds are:

• New York Yankees: -150
• Boston Red Sox: +130

If you bet $100 on the Yankees at -150 and they win, you would profit $66.67 (your initial $100 stake plus the $66.67 in winning). This may look good in the beginning but in the long run betting on your favorite is not profitable as it doesn't offer enough return to offset losses over time. 

Even though the star teams win more often, smart betting strategies include observing the underdogs and checking the odds to win more money compared to what you risk.

3. Frequent Games

The MLB season lasts about six months. Each of the 30 teams plays 162 games, adding up to 2,430 games total. Teams usually play series instead of single games. With so many options to choose from, you can get tangled in stats and put your focus solely on star teams instead of evaluating other variables that may kill your betting strategies.

4. Line Movement

Bench players need opportunities to play, while players who have been playing straight for several days need a break. In basketball, the starting lineup is usually consistent unless there’s an injury or a strategic change. However, in baseball, teams often rotate players, especially when there’s a doubleheader.

These constant changes can leave the bettors in a dilemma and make betting more complex. For instance, if you're betting on the New York Yankees and their star hitter Aaron Judge is resting, the team's chances of winning might decrease, affecting your bet.

5. Other Variables

You have to consider multiple factors when looking for the best odds in the game. While team performance and lineup matter the most, other factors that can lower your chances of winning include weather conditions, travel fatigue, player injuries, and emotional gameplay.

For instance, a strong wind blowing in can suppress offense, favoring pitchers and resulting in fewer runs. Similarly, rain can cause delays and cancellations putting mental pressure on the players and affecting their overall performance.

Is Baseball the Worst Sport To Bet on?

Not entirely, especially if you know how betting works in baseball. However, with 162 games per season, the odds of winning are rare.

Having lots of games sounds great for stats, but it can overwhelm bettors trying to analyze that info. Even when teams like the LA Dodgers have amazing seasons with records like 111-51, they still lose 30% of the time.

Baseball is indeed unpredictable, especially with all the variables working in action. But if you're a regular observer, you can identify the trends and get lucky.

How Do You Bet on Baseball Effectively?

• Consider betting against the crowd. Don’t just bet on your favorites. Even underdogs with good odds can win you big.
• Umpires can also influence the game’s outcome based on their strike zone. Do thorough research for a better betting decision.
• Check weather forecasts to assess potential impacts on gameplay.
• When the line moves opposite to the public betting trend, it often signals value.
• Compare odds across different sportsbooks to get the best possible line.
• Avoid risky bets, which have lower odds of winning despite higher potential payouts.
• Don’t go over your set budget.

Conclusion

Now you know why betting on baseball is so hard. You can bet on your favorite team all season but factors like the lineup rotation and weather can ruin the entire game. While the extensive season offers numerous betting opportunities, careful analysis and strategic betting practices, such as betting against the public and team performance, are essential for consistent profitability.